The Empire Has No Clothes

Think about the city in which you live. Think about your country, your company or your family. Now jump in your Marty McFly time machine, rev up your flux compaciter and travel back 100 years. You'll notice that there is nearly 100% turnover in your city, country, company and family. The institutional names may be the same, but the people representing those names are completely different. This is really quite amazing if you think about it. The most successful families, companies, cities and countries over the last 100 years have maintained their success despite turning over their "management" at least 1-2 times. For example, United States founding fathers, Ben Franklin, George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison amongst others have all been dead 200 plus years yet we continue to be successful under the U.S. banner.

We know to some extent that success breeds success. Children coming from wealthy households are much more likely to earn above average incomes than children from underpriviledged households. This is due to a variety of reasons; education, experiences, development and environment to name a few. So if my great grandpa, whom I've never met was wealthy, I then have a better than average shot of being wealthy myself. Okay, maybe heredity then plays a role. However, heredity can't explain the continuned success of companies, cities and countries. Members of the U.S. Congress have never met James Madison or Abraham Lincoln, yet the United States continues to see success. Out of the 8+ million people living in New York City, not one inhabited that city in 1900. Yet the city continues to be thriving and strong. Which 007 do you prefer, Sean Connery, Timmoth Dalton, Pierce Broznan or Daniel Craig? Doesn't matter, the success continues.

My question is at what point does success stop breeding success and start breeding apathy? Surely decadence and fortune can bring lethary - this is why salespeople are compensated on commision as opposed to high based salaries. We know that "fat cats don't hunt." As I read through historical examples on both a macro and micro level I began to see patterns of success beginning to give way to oppulence and ultimately failure. Let's start at a macro level and work our way backwards.

The Roman Empire dominated much of the eastern world for centuries. They ruthlessly expanded their territory through brute military force which necesitated increased taxation to lay the infrastructure of a large republic. That said, the sheer scalability of Rome could not divert its inevitable collapse. Rome experienced tremendous growth and success for hundreds of years through many generations. Success bread success for what seemed would be an eternity, but that success came to an end. Why?

Philosopher Glub Pasha studied the rise and fall of many of the worlds empires. He noticed that each followed a similar life cycle:

1. The age of outburst (pioneers)
2. The age of conquests (expansion)
3. The age of commerce (economic development)
4. The age of affluence
5. The age of intellect
6. The age of decadence
7. The age of collapse

Some of these stages are self explanatory. Each preceeding stage inevitably overlaps and leads to the next. Post pioneering, conquests of territory take place either through force (Rome) or through commerce (Louisiana Purchase). Ultimately, this leads us into the commerce stage where less emphasis is put on military and geographic expansion and more focus is directed at econmic growth. As our commerce focused world yields affluence, we begin putting up barriers to protect our wealth; note the Roman Emperors Hadians Wall, the Great Wall of China, even the Maginot line of 20th century France. These barriers allow the focus to remain internal where powerful empires then assemble universities to stimulate the minds of their people. The growth in intellect ultimately leads to the questioning of how and why the empire has reached such heights. People begin to reject their foundational values and morals as the age of decadence begins. People begin worshipping false Gods; celebrities, athletes, political leaders as opposed to religious Gods or military and business leaders of the past. The moral decay, brought on by oppulence, greed and comfort ultimately lead to apathy and thus collapse.

As the generations turn over and wealth, comfort and decadence become a right as opposed to a priviledge the empire begins to fall. There seems to be a point of dimishing returns. Where is the U.S. right now? That may be the subject for another blog. Let's continue the analogy.

The Roman Empire story is essentially retold in the form of Detroit, Michigan albeit with a shorter life span. Detroit is a city who rose to power in the early part of the 20th century through economic expansion brought about by the demand of military goods. Detroit prospered by manufacturing goods for World War I and World War II. The next generation in Detroit evolved (age of commerce) into the automobile manufacturing capital of the world. The wealth in Detroit continued to grow. Detroit's next generation, the grand children of the successful military manufacturers grew apathetic toward innovation and ingenuity. As process improvement took hold in the business world (TQM, Lean, Six Sigma), Detroit was passed by the speeding German and Japaneese cars that were lower cost and higher quality. The city of Detroit has still not recovered and likely never will see the glory days of the past. An American industry and city fell on the laurels of their past.

This evolution has been seen countless times within companies. In the 1950's the Fortune 100 list was populated with giants like US Steel, Easmark and Union Carbide. Companies like IBM have been a victim of what we call "creative destruction." What happens in these organizations who saw continued success under many generations? The book "Innovators Dilemma" offers some insight as to why many of these monstrous organizations fail. As success continues, large organizations invest in "sustaining" technologies or advancements. Many of these advancements don't actually add value to the product because consumers are unaffected by them. For example, at a certain point you don't notice the processing speed of your computer increasing. Likewise, at a certain point additional computer storage is no longer of benefit for you (my Ipod can hold 20,000 songs- I own about 5000). In the golf world, you don't notice that a carbon driver head is slightly more sturdy than a titanium head. Yet, the longstanding successful organizations innovate these changes and try to charge a premium for them (age of affluence). This opens the door for what "The Innovators Dilemma" dubs "disruptive technologies." These products, or technologies are introduced to the market as a cheaper, easier and more consumer friendly alternative. Think about the personal computers from Apple and Dell that helped make IBM obsolete. Disruptive products or technologies have slayed many great companies of the past. It was their comfort in success that lead to a culture apathy in innovation which manifested itself collapse.

How many generations of extreme success within a family does it take bring about a sense of entitlement? The old wives tale is that the third generation generally screws up a successful family business. One of my favorite new TV shows starring Will Arnett is called "Running Wilde," a story of a rich spoiled son of an oil executive who lives a life of luxury and ignorance. He is the perfect example of what generations of continued oppulence and success can do to a persons internal drive. Should we have expected the fall of Paris Hilton by making her analogous the Roman Empire? I think there is truth in that.

I've always said if it happens once, its an anomaly - if it happens twice (or repeatedly) its a pattern. The story of Rome, Detroit, IBM, US Steel and the ficticious "Wilde Oil," are stories of human behavior. People, families, companies, cities, countries and empires rise to power and prominance. At some point, the values that helped them to reach elite levels gives way to contentment, lethargy, entitlement and apathy all of which precipitates the decline. History may say that arming yourself with this information will do little to deviate the impending outcome. It is a cycle perpetuated by our biological brain waves. I refuse to believe that to be the case.

Sure, 100 years from now my company will have an entirely new workforce most of whom will probably never have heard of me. The U.S. population will be between 300-500 million people, none of which probably are alive today. My immediate family will be lead by my unborn grandson who will likely have kids of his own trying to make their own mark on the world. Turnover happens. It is the connective tissue between generations, leadership, countries etc that determines whether success breeds success or ultimately failure.

"Empires" blinded by perpetual success are eventually exposed and left naked in the cold.

Payton Manning vs Russell Crowe

We've all seen the cinematic brilliance and horrific violence presented in the movie "Gladiator" starring Russell Crowe. As a society we gasp in visceral angst by the copious display of gore. We are comforted by the fact that we live in a more civilized and sympathetic time in relation to human life. According to wikipedia (yes, its a reliable source) "a gladiator as an armed combatant who entertained audiences in the Roman Republic and Roman Empire in violent confrontations with other gladiators, wild animals, and condemned criminals. Some gladiators were volunteers who risked their legal and social standing and their lives by appearing in the arena. Most were despised as slaves, schooled under harsh conditions, socially marginalized, and segregated even in death." That said, gladiators offered audiences an example of martial ethics and in fighting or dying well they could inspire admiration and popular acclaim. They were, in a sense entertainers.

Dying well was considered honorable. A gladiator who was obviously defeated would kneel before the victorious opponent, drop his head and wait for the quick, swift stab to the back of his neck. There was great honor in "dying well."

Death and/or physical harm was entertaining to a desensitized Roman Republic. Watching a violent death was as disconcerning to the Romans as watching one of Brett Favre's retirement press conferences is to society today. A human life did not carry the value we perceive life to carry today. Or so you would think...

A few weeks ago I watched with anticipation and excitement on the NFL's first Sunday of the 2010 season. Of considerable interest to me was the Philadelphia Eagles game as I was eager to see if Kevin Kolb could take over this team for the departed McNabb and also because there were several former Huskers in the game. Stewart Bradley was a standout middle linebacker for the Huskers during my college tenure. He has excelled with the Eagles over the past few years thus worked himself onto the starting unit. Midway through the second quarter, Stewart made a big tackle, popping the ball carrier hard. After the collision Bradley struggled to get up. Once vertical he took three wobbly steps and collapsed like a drunken sailor.

Many of you know the seemingly extreme measures the NFL has recently taken to prevent and treat concussions. Announcers Joe Buck and Troy Aikmen both mentioned that we'd seen the last of Bradley as he was clearly concussed. Just three minutes later Bradley reentered the game and played out the half. Call it tough, or call it stupid. It reminded me of the parady "Not Another Teen Movie," based after "Varsity blues" where Reggie Ray says "Coach says its okay to bleed from the ears" and re-enters the game.

Kyle Turley is a giant of a man standing over 6 feet 5 inches and weighing in at nearly 300 lbs. Turley retired as an offensive tackle for the New Orleans Saints in 2007. He is perhaps best known for his wild antics (youtube Turley chucking an opponents helmet) and big hits on opposing defenders. Over the course of Turley's career he suffered a dozen documented concussions and likely many more undocumented concussions.

In 2008, Turley went with his wife and a few friends to a bar in Nashville, Tennessee. As the warm up band played, Turley sipped his first beer. All of the sudden he felt light headed and extremely hot. Turley began to sweat profusely and fell to the ground. His buddies helped him regain consciousness and took him out to the street for fresh air. Turley vomited repeatedly before losing control of his extremities. He was having a panic attack. His wife rushed him to the hospital for treatment. Unfortunately, these attacks had become a frequent occurence since his retirement from the NFL.

In an article in the New York Times called "Offensive Play" by Malcomb Gladwell, Turley recalls his playing days. "I'd get hit so hard my eyes would go cross eyed for a few plays. Sometimes on longer drives I'd get blurry vision. There'd be three guys for me to block so I'd just hit the middle one." Turley said in the NFL you are either hurt or you're injured. If you're hurt, you can play, if you're injured, you can't.

Recently you may have noticed the influx of former NFL players in the news for what appears to be premature deaths. Mike Webster, the Steelers great great ended his life a recluse living in an Amtrak station. Terry Long, another Steeler great drank a bottle of antifreeze to end his life. Former Philadelphia Eagle Andre Waters pleaded with his girlfriend to get him help, but got none and shot himself. More recently Kenny McKinnely of the Denver Broncos shot himself in his Denver condo. Damien Nash, a 24 year old teammate of McKinnely collapsed during a charity pick up game of basketball and died. Owen Thomas, the University of Pennsylvania defensive end committed suicide in 2008. The list goes on...

What do these players have in common?

In 2003, a man thought to have died of Alzheimer's and dementia donated his brain to science. Doctors studied the cerebral tissue of the brain expecting to find two things: 1. Beta-amyloid and 2. Tau. Beta-amyloid is thought to lay the foundation for dementia inside the brain while Tau is present on the outer tissue signaling brain damage. To the doctors surprise there was absolutely no trace of Beta-amyloid inside the individuals brain. This was a huge find because it signed that the Tau, found on the outside of the brain was not caused by a disease, but caused by injury. This individual had C.T.L. (Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy). What injury had this man sustained? The doctors later found out that this individuals occupation was a professional boxer. He had taken repeated blows to the head.

Certain institutions are now working to collect the brains of deceased athletes to study C.T.L. Recently a former NFL linebacker died of an accidental gunshot to the head. He was 40 years old. When examining his brain doctors again noticed Tau on his frontal and temporal lobes. Absent was Beta-amyloid. This linebacker had sustained 11 concussions (documented) over the course of his career. The same doctor that studied the linebackers brain also looked at a deceased lineman's brain. The bruising around the outside of the brain could be seen even without a magnifying glass!

Strange things happen to NFL players when their careers end. Slurred speech and depression are common. Men who were always concerned about health become alcoholics. Men who adored their wives become abusive. Men with great educations fail even the simplest remedial tasks. Of the former NFL players over 50 years of age, 6.1% have been diagnosed with dementia which is five times the national average. Do we have an epidemic on our hands?

Scientist Guskieicz wanted to measure the true impact of the hits football players take on a daily basis. He inserted six sensors into the helmet of a defensive end during summer double days. This defensive end first took an 80-g hit to the front of his head. Later that morning he took a 98-g hit to the exact same spot. A 100-g hit is identical to hitting a brick wall at 25 mph in your car and smashing your head against the windshield. This player essentially survived two crashes that morning. He again took a 60-g hit in the afternoon practice before calling it a day. This is just in practice!

Ok, you may say this is just a problem for aging adults. Wrong! It has been estimated that between 10%-50% of high school football players suffer at least one concussion during the season. Over 75% of those are unreported and undocumented.

So what do we do, ban football like we've banned gladiators? Turns out, it has been attempted. In 1905 President Theodore Roosevelt attempted to ban college football as it was thought to be dangerous to our young men. The 12 major universities at the time came forward to vote and came within one vote of banishing football at all universities across the country. Life without football is not a life worth living, but maybe that is what the Romans thought about gladiators.

Football players, like gladiators are entertainers. They subject themselevs to violent acts to excite the masses. Yes, gladiators were often enslaved and forced to participate while football players opt in knowing many of the risks. My point is the societal thirst for violence is now quenched at Lambue Field instead of the Colosseum. Just because we don't see the health effects in the short term doesn't mean they aren't there and it doesn't mean they aren't just as severe.

I can hear Adrian Peterson now: "My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, Commander of the Armies of Northern Minnesota, General of the Felix backfield, loyal servant to the true emperor, Brad Childress. Playmaker to an aging quarterback, leader to a prima donna reciever, and I will have my vengence, in this life or the next."

Maximus! Maximus! Maximus!